We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. our Gitlab account where you can there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. That's 14 in a row. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. 11. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". University of New Hampshire . BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. Trump County, USA - POLITICO Magazine As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. 6. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. Bellwether Counties Historical Performance 1984 to 2020 We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. From Florida to Texas, the 6 Key Counties That Could Decide the - Vogue Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. Dont simply gloss over this. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. What Can We Learn from Bellwether Counties in Swing States? So, where are the bellwether counties? Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. The divisions were everywhere. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. Outstanding. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. (i.e. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. 12. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. 108,000 people. 3. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. A Guide To The Election 'Guides' - NPR.org For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. Contributors wanted University of Denver, 2. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. Do you know this baby? The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble ET. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. These key counties are telling the story of America's shifting What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. 3. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? Biden win ends streak for US election bellwethers - The Mercury News 10 bellwether counties that could signal where the election is headed Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections - SSRN Just how big is it? If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. Demographics (84) He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. Really stop reading. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. Until this year. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud.