Changes are shown as (vs that poll / vs last election). Humza Yousaf takes the lead as SNP members swing behind Nicola Sturgeon's man, The 'worst health secretary in the history of devolution' is just ahead of his rivals in the SNP leadership contest, although a third of Nat members still don't know who to vote for, Ian Blackford 'looking forward' to end of police probe into SNP's 'murky' finances as he dodges Peter Murrell question. Scottish Independence Poll Methodology: The above analysis of support for Scottish independence draws from the published polls of a number of leading firms: YouGov, Survation, ComRes, Redfield and Wilton, Panelbase, Detlapoll, Opinium and IpsosMori. The other tables reflect different ways questions around Independence can be asked, they may produce different results. In February 2023, 47 percent of British adults would vote for the Labour Party in a . All Rights Reserved. Excluding those who declare themselves to be undecided (currently around 6% of the electorate), polling averages from February 2023. places the Yes side at 47.1% and the No side at 52.9%. It remains to be seen how support for independence will pan out now Rishi Sunak has become prime minister, King Charles III has succeeded Elizabeth II, and as Nicola Sturgeon steps down as first minister. Those SNP MPs to lose their seats would include Amy Callaghan in East Dunbartonshire (to the Lib Dems) and Richard Thomson in Gordon (to the Tories). Scotlands political landscape after Nicola Sturgeon? It was a survey of more than 1,700 British adults. Scottish NHS staff reject latest pay offer and threaten 'unprecedented' strike action, Nicola Sturgeons SNP government blocking Scotlands 'success in the UK', says Sir Keir Starmer, Met Police in London urged to investigate the SNP's Covid 'crime of the century', Campaigners believe longstanding failures in the Scottish healthcare regulation were exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic, leading to up to 30,000 avoidable deaths and they won't stop until they get justice, Prince Harry feels 'stuck' with Meghan Markle in America as biographer claims he wants them to come home, The Duke and Duchess of Sussex quit the UK in 2020 but observers reckon the move has not worked out for them, Tax authorities 'destroyed' Rangers, former chairman Charles Green tells court, Green also spoke of his dislike for Craig Whyte, telling the court 'if we had a collection in this court we would have more money from that than Craig Whyte would ever have', Prince Harry set to lose Dukedom as King's eviction is block on him 'deputising', More rejection for Prince Harry as experts reckon his UK eviction is a tactical move to stop him from being able to step into Royal roles in the event of King Charles's absence, Nicola Sturgeon and Peter Murrell's joint bank account is key to resignation, says Private Eye, The outgoing SNP leader and her chief executive husband are urged to answer the question about whether or not they have a joint bank account, as the magazine says Operation Branchform was the 'game-changer' behind shock resignation, Teaching strikes reprieve in doubt as union blasts 14% pay rise as 'paltry'. By clicking 'Create Account and Subscribe' you agree to us creating an account for you and subscribing you to our newsletter in accordance with our Privacy Policy and Legal Notice.Emails, which may be sent daily or less frequently, may include marketing elements. Following Margaret Thatchers departure from Downing Street, support for Scottish independence fell back slightly and was polling around 30% in the middle of the 1990s. Under the current polling, Labour is on course to win seats in parts of the country where it has always been a distant spectator, such as both Bournemouth constituencies in Dorset, Macclesfield in Cheshire, Aylesbury in Buckingham, Southend East in Essex, Weston Super Mare, and Bromley and Chiselhurst in south east London. This once again reaffirms how sleaze and scandal remain the most potent political weapons in British politics, ones which can quickly and easily cut through to voters. In 2022, the level of people polled citing dont know has fluctuated around the 5%-8% level. The voting intention was not weighted by likelihood to vote. Should a general election be held today, this would likely lead to the following composition of the House of Commons: The result of a general election is projected as a Labour victory with the party securing an outright majority of 46 seats. Excluding those who declare themselves to be undecided (currently around 6% of the electorate), polling averages from February 2023 places the Yes side at 47.1% and the No side at 52.9%. Polling includes only those that explicitly ask how the responder would vote in a hypothetical referendum on the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union, rather than repeating the remain/leave question of the 2016 referendum. Most of the pollsters listed were members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules.. Click to get a sign-in link sent to your email. Copyright 1997 - 2023 NewsNow Publishing Limited. /Which party are you most inclined to support? The table also lists some events that may have impacted on polling returns, including the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, the Covid pandemic in Scotland and party leadership changes. Where does the public really stand on womens rights and proposals to reform the Gender Recognition Act? Those who are likely voters, don't know, or wouldn't vote are excluded. Please check you have typed it correctly. The latest YouGov panel has shown a shift against independence in several areas. Six reasons Labour might not win the next election alone, Urban Flight A real threat to many formerly safe seats in the Blue Wall. Our first Tory members poll since the final two candidates were decided shows Liz Truss with a 24pt . The latest YouGov/Times voting intention poll, conducted a fortnight after Rishi Sunak became prime minister, shows Labour maintaining a significant lead over the Conservatives. Prior to the collapse in Conservative polling in 2022, it was suggested that equalising constituencies may assist the Conservatives by as many as 10 seats, given that the partys seats in the south of England are currently numerically larger than those found elsewhere in the country. This feed updates continuously 24/7 so check back regularly. The above analysis of general election polls has been calculated through linear average equation modelling of the latest UK opinion polls of Westminster voting intention. The latest voting intention survey puts Labour a whopping 28 points ahead of the Tories, with Rishi Sunaks party flirting with sub-20 numbers in what would be a historic low. 4th October 2022| The latest opinion polling from outlet YouGov shows respondents relatively downbeat on the state of the US economy over the next six months, anticipating that inflation will rise, there will be further interest rate hikes, and gas prices will increase. A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll finds that Florida Gov. First Minister of Scotland: Runners and Riders. In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, one in which the Scottish government took responsibility for the handling of the virus in Scotland, there were signs of sustained backing for Scottish independence for the first time. Most polling companies listed here are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The latest monthly polling averages on Scottish independence show No campaigners to have consolidated their lead in the polls once again. With the Conservatives polling over 50%, this lead briefly surpassed 20% at the beginning of the Covid pandemic in March and April 2020. The figures show the Conservatives on 28% of the vote (-4 from our previous survey on 21-23 September) to Labour's 45% (+5) - this is the highest Labour lead YouGov has ever recorded. More Scots are seeing the reality of SNP rule. A new opinion poll has found that support for the Tories in Wales is in freefall. Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. Relevance is automatically assessed so some headlines not qualifying as Scottish Opinion Poll news might appear - please feel free to contact us regarding any persistent issues. Similarly, the above analysis has been conducted based on the existing United Kingdom constituency boundaries. However, following the Scottish parliament election of May 2021, one in which Nicola Sturgeon continued in government albeit in coalition with the Scottish greens , there have been signs of a slight drop off in enthusiasm for Scottish independence. Boris Johnson may have misled Parliament over Partygate, investigating MPs have claimed, Matt Hancocks reaction to his affair with Gina Coladangelo has been revealed in leaked WhatsApp messages, Numerous Russian attacks in eastern Donetsk have been repelled in the past day, Ukraines military has said, The White House has confirmed that Joe Biden had a cancerous skin lesion removed last month, At least 17 people have died in a fire at a fuel depot in Indonesia, Saving Private Ryan actor Tom Sizemore has died aged 61 after a brain aneurysm, Labour were just two points behind the SNP in Scotland before Nicola Sturgeon's shock, Support for Scottish independence at 46% before Nicola Sturgeon resigned poll. A survey for YouGov gives the SNP a vote share of 36 per cent, with Labour on 33 per cent, the Conservatives on 19 with the Lib Dems just ahead of the Greens on seven and five per cent respectively. Separate from the question of how Scots might vote in a hypothetical second referendum is the question of whether there should be a second referendum. A YouGov poll in March of last year found that 55% backed keeping the monarchy . Labour scalps would include Tommy Sheppard, Angus MacNeil, Douglas Chapman and Stewart McDonald. If you'd like to find out more about how polls work, how reliable they are and how to make sense of them, check out my book, Polling UnPacked: the History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls, or sign up for my weekly email: Subscribe to our email alert of the day's top stories from the UK and around the world. Ron DeSantis now leads former President Donald Trump by 5 percentage points in the race for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. The above analysis of support for Scottish independence draws from the published polls of a number of leading firms: YouGov, Survation, ComRes, Redfield and Wilton, Panelbase, Detlapoll, Opinium and IpsosMori. Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. A high percentage of respondents agreeing that people should be free to express their transgender identity does not however translate into support for reforming the Gender Recognition Act based on self-declaration. Please read our privacy policy and terms of use before signing up. In this scenario, how would you vote in a General Election? Big names to go would include Joanna Cherry and Mhairi Black. Support for Scottish independence nudged up to 50% for the first time in 2019, soon after Boris Johnson became prime minister. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Scottish Parliament election, held . Redfield and Wilton (26 February) which placed Labour on 51%, the Conservatives on 24%, and the Liberal Democrts on 9%. The pollster found. It's Andrew's Previews for.
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